China Economic Temperature

Employment 30%

Overall unemployment remains relatively stable, but youth unemployment has risen to 17.9 percent and employment indices in manufacturing and non-manufacturing remain below the expansion threshold, revealing pronounced structural pressure.

Real income & cost 25%

Real per-capita disposable income grew 4.2 percent in the first half while July consumer prices rose 0.5 percent year over year, allowing household purchasing power to remain stable.

Consumption & confidence 20%

Retail sales grew only 0.6 percent year over year in July and 1.2 percent in the first seven months, while weak big-ticket purchases show that households remain cautious.

Housing 15%

Property investment fell 19.2 percent and commercial housing sales area declined 11.8 percent in the first seven months, while second-hand prices kept falling in lower-tier cities, leaving housing in a deep adjustment.

Business environment 10%

August manufacturing PMI stood at 49.8, non-manufacturing activity at 49.0, and small-firm PMI at just 47.9, showing that high-tech growth has not yet produced a broad expansion.

High-tech manufacturingHighestMost watched

Warm · High-tech manufacturing value added grew 13.8 percent in the first seven months while software and information-services revenue also expanded rapidly, putting the industry in a warm range.

Real estateLowestMost watched

Severe cold · A 19.2 percent fall in investment, an 11.8 percent decline in sales area, and falling prices across many cities make real estate the coldest and one of the most closely watched listed industries.

Automotive manufacturingMost watched

Comfortable · Total vehicle sales edged down in July, but new-energy vehicle sales rose 23.7 percent and vehicle exports jumped 81.3 percent, leaving domestic legacy demand sharply divided from new-energy and export growth.

Retail and consumer services

Cool · Services retail sales grew 5.0 percent in the first seven months, but goods retail sales rose only 1.1 percent, leaving service resilience insufficient to offset weak goods consumption.

Young people

Cold · Unemployment among urban 16-to-24-year-olds excluding students has risen to 17.9 percent, leaving young people in cold conditions amid intense entry-level competition and weak income expectations.

White-collar workers

Cool · Overall urban employment remains stable, but weak business activity and labor demand limit pay rises, promotions, and job-switching opportunities for white-collar workers.

Small business owners

Cold · A small-firm PMI of just 47.9, slow retail growth, and weak new orders leave small-business owners under continued pressure from demand, cash flow, and margins.

First-time homebuyers

Cold · Falling home prices and a five-year-plus loan prime rate of 3.5 percent reduce some nominal costs, but uncertain job and income prospects and a contracting market keep first-time buyers cautious.

ChatGPT

Real-income growth and mild prices coexist with severe youth employment pressure, weak consumption, a contracting housing market, and business activity below the expansion threshold, leaving ordinary people's economic experience cool.

Claude

Overall employment remains stable, but youth unemployment at 17.9 percent, subdued consumption, contracting manufacturing activity, and falling property investment leave supply and demand sharply divided.

DeepSeek

Slow growth, rising youth unemployment, weak big-ticket consumption, and a deep property contraction outweigh support from modest real-income gains and controlled prices.

Gemini

Rising youth unemployment and a continuing deep property adjustment make conditions feel cold despite steady expansion in high-tech manufacturing.

Qwen

Stable overall employment and improving manufacturing provide support, but youth job pressure, weak consumer confidence, the property adjustment, and strain on small firms keep conditions cool.