France Economic Temperature

Employment 30%

Unemployment rose to 8.3 percent and youth unemployment to 21.6 percent, while payroll employment and private-sector jobs edged down, making jobs harder to find and employment pressure visibly stronger.

Real income & cost 25%

Hourly wages grew 2.3 percent year on year, but household purchasing power per consumption unit fell 0.6 percent in the second quarter and consumer-price inflation accelerated to 2.4 percent in August, keeping real living standards under pressure.

Consumption & confidence 20%

Household goods consumption grew for a second consecutive month, but confidence remained at 86, well below its long-run average of 100, and willingness to make major purchases weakened further, leaving spending defensive.

Housing 15%

Individual new-home reservations fell 4.8 percent quarter on quarter and twelve-month housing permits were 9.5 percent below their five-year average, while rebounds in starts and mortgage lending were offset by rates rising to 3.27 percent, leaving the market cool.

Business environment 10%

Industrial and market-service activity grew only modestly and service-sector cash positions remained unfavorable, while twelve-month business failures rose 5.1 percent to 70,803, keeping operating conditions cold.

Aerospace and defenseHighestMost watched

Comfortable · Aerospace orders remain above normal and defense and telecommunications-equipment investment provides support, although a July output decline and supply constraints limit near-term performance.

ManufacturingMost watched

Cool · Industrial activity is growing modestly and electronics, optical, and electrical-equipment orders are above normal, but weaker automotive production leaves the manufacturing recovery clearly uneven.

Retail

Cold · Consecutive gains in goods consumption provide some support, but household confidence remains far below normal and willingness to make major purchases is falling, leaving retail demand fragile.

Construction and housingLowestMost watched

Cold · New-home reservations are down, housing permits remain below their five-year average, and construction employment continues to fall, with July's rebound in starts providing only a limited buffer.

Young people

Cold · Youth unemployment rose to 21.6 percent and private-sector employment among 15- to 29-year-olds fell 1.4 percent from a year earlier, squeezing both entry-level work and opportunities for independent living.

White-collar workers

Cold · Employment among core working-age adults is down from a year earlier, wage growth is roughly tracking inflation, and clients of knowledge services remain cautious, limiting white-collar job switching and real pay gains.

Small business owners

Cold · Market-service cash positions remain unfavorable, demand and cost pressures persist, and business failures are up 5.1 percent from a year earlier, squeezing small-business owners' room to operate and expand.

First-time homebuyers

Cool · Purchasing power per person has fallen, new-home reservations are down, and mortgage rates have risen to about 3.27 percent, while first-time-buyer lending has only stabilized, leaving deposit and monthly-payment burdens heavy.

ChatGPT

Weaker employment, real purchasing power, and housing demand leave the economy cool, while consecutive gains in goods consumption and strength in parts of technology and manufacturing are offset by low confidence and elevated business failures.

Claude

Near-zero growth, persistently rising unemployment, falling household purchasing power, and stagnant consumption put the economy in the cold range, although aerospace exports prevent a deeper downturn.

Gemini

Zero growth, renewed inflation, falling real household purchasing power, and rising unemployment have depressed confidence and pushed households toward defensive saving.

DeepSeek

Persistently rising unemployment, energy-driven inflation, weaker purchasing power, and confidence far below normal leave the near-stagnant economy distinctly cold.

Qwen

A cooling labor market, rising energy costs, and weak consumer confidence are weighing on conditions, while signs of manufacturing recovery are not enough to offset soft services and overall demand.