United Kingdom Economic Temperature

Employment 30%

Employment remains broadly stable, but unemployment has risen to 4.9 percent, payroll jobs are down from a year earlier, and vacancies have fallen to about 707,000, signaling a cooler market for job seekers and switchers.

Real income & cost 25%

Regular pay is growing by only about 0.5 percent in real terms, while consumer prices are up 2.9 percent and energy and rental costs are still rising, leaving limited improvement in household purchasing power.

Consumption & confidence 20%

Consumer confidence has reached a two-year high and three-month retail volumes are still growing, but confidence remains negative and July sales fell, showing that household spending is still cautious.

Housing 15%

House-price growth is modest, but rents and new mortgage rates continue to rise while purchase approvals have fallen, putting pressure on both housing activity and affordability.

Business environment 10%

The economy and business investment continued to grow in the second quarter, but more firms reported falling turnover than rising turnover, while uncertainty and cost pressure kept hiring and expansion cautious.

Digital and professional servicesHighest

Comfortable · Information and communication grew 2.7 percent and professional, scientific, and technical activities grew 1.7 percent in the second quarter, making them relative bright spots among major industries.

ManufacturingMost watched

Cool · Manufacturing output grew 1.0 percent in the second quarter, but overall production was flat and inventories fell, leaving the industry's expansion uneven.

RetailMost watched

Cool · Retail volumes are still growing over three months, but they fell 0.5 percent in July and consumer confidence remains negative despite improving, leaving the demand recovery fragile.

ConstructionLowestMost watched

Cold · Construction output grew only 0.3 percent in the second quarter and fell 2.0 percent from a year earlier, while new orders dropped 11.8 percent quarter on quarter, putting the future workload under clear pressure.

Young people

Cool · Youth unemployment and the share not in employment, education, or training remain elevated, fewer vacancies limit entry-level opportunities, and high rents further constrain young people's ability to live independently.

White-collar workers

Cool · Professional-services output is still growing, but fewer vacancies and payroll jobs and only limited real-pay gains leave white-collar workers with weak job-switching and pay-bargaining power.

Small business owners

Cool · More firms report falling turnover than rising turnover, while economic uncertainty and labor and operating costs continue to suppress small businesses' willingness to hire and expand.

First-time homebuyers

Cool · House prices are still rising, rents erode the ability to save a deposit, and new mortgage rates have reached about 4.45 percent, leaving first-time buyers with heavy deposit and monthly-payment burdens.

ChatGPT

The economy is growing modestly and real pay has edged up, but vacancies are at a multiyear low, living and housing costs remain elevated, and household and business demand is cautious.

Claude

Modest economic expansion and resilient consumption provide support, but renewed inflation, a cooler labor market, and subdued mortgage activity limit the improvement felt by ordinary people.

Gemini

Real pay has returned to slight growth and consumer confidence has recovered somewhat, but rising inflation, elevated borrowing costs, and cautious businesses keep the overall economy slightly cool.

DeepSeek

The economy continued to grow in the second quarter, but higher unemployment, fewer vacancies, and pressure from energy bills keep household conditions feeling cool.

Qwen

A cooler labor market and weaker private-sector pay growth, alongside living costs, first-home barriers, and cautious consumption, outweigh the support from expanding business activity.