United States Economic Temperature

Employment 30%

Unemployment remains relatively low, but job growth, vacancies, hiring, and quits all indicate that the labor market is cooling.

Real income & cost 25%

Nominal incomes are still rising, but falling real hourly earnings and above-comfortable inflation are limiting gains in household purchasing power.

Consumption & confidence 20%

Real consumption and retail sales are softening, while consumers also have notably weak expectations for future employment and business conditions.

Housing 15%

High mortgage rates, weak transactions, and elevated home prices are jointly depressing affordability and housing-market activity.

Business environment 10%

Manufacturing remains in expansion and small-business confidence and hiring plans have improved, although cost pressures and business uncertainty remain elevated.

ManufacturingHighestMost watched

Comfortable · August manufacturing surveys remained in expansion, but cost pressures and uneven employment kept the industry from becoming clearly warm.

RetailMost watched

Cool · Weaker retail sales and declining consumer confidence show that households remain cautious about discretionary spending.

Real estate and residential constructionLowestMost watched

Cold · High mortgage rates, weak transactions, and slower homebuilding continue to weigh on real estate and residential construction activity.

Young people

Cool · Youth unemployment remains well above the overall rate, while cooling entry-level hiring and high housing and living costs weigh on young people.

White-collar workers

Cool · Jobs remain broadly stable, but weak hiring and quits and pressure on real wages leave white-collar workers with a cool environment for job changes and pay bargaining.

Small business owners

Cool · Small-business confidence and hiring plans have improved, but softer demand, cost pressures, and elevated uncertainty continue to constrain operating conditions.

First-time homebuyers

Cold · Elevated home prices and mortgage rates near 6.7 percent are raising monthly payments and further weakening first-time affordability while real wages are under pressure.

ChatGPT

The economy is still expanding, but weaker hiring, pressure on real wages, cautious consumption, and subdued housing transactions leave it feeling cool for ordinary people.

Claude

Low unemployment and business expansion keep the economy at the lower edge of comfortable, but falling real wages, weaker consumer confidence, and high mortgage rates limit the improvement.

Gemini

Inflation and living costs are weighing on consumer confidence and real purchasing power, while relatively stable employment and manufacturing expansion provide support.

DeepSeek

Falling real wages, rising living costs, a cooling labor market, weaker consumption, and subdued housing transactions make the economy feel cold for ordinary people.

Qwen

The labor market and housing activity have cooled noticeably and consumer confidence is weak, while business activity continues to expand under cost and uncertainty pressures.